Farm-Gate-Level Analysis of Crop Production and Emissions in Africa’s Regional Trading Bloc Member States

An in-depth analysis of the drivers of agricultural emissions at the farm-gate level is crucial for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. This study examines the short- and long-run effects of crop production on farm-gate emissions in the regional trading bloc (RTB) member states in Africa. Crop production was proxied by cereals, roots and tubers, vegetables, and fruits production, and emissions were split into methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. Data on these variables were collected from 30 RTB member states from 1990 to 2022 and were analyzed using the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributive lag approach. The pooled mean group was used as a robustness check, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to ensure the reliability of the study findings. The results revealed that cereal production increases farm-gate CH4 and N2O emissions in the short and long run. The average increase ranges from 1.0021 to 1.0033 kilotons CO2–eq yr−1 for CH4, and from 1.0024 to 1.0035 kilotons CO2–eq yr−1 for N2O. In addition, fruit production increases farm-gate CH4 emissions by an average of 1.0023 kiloton CO2–eq yr−1 in the long run. Thus, cereal production has a more adverse effect on N2O than CH4 emissions, while the opposite is true for fruit production in the RTB member states’ Nationally Determined Contributions. With respect to mediation, cropland expansion (proxied by area harvested) plays a partial intermediary role in the impact of crop production on farm-gate CH4 and N2O emissions in the short run and CH4 emissions in the long run. However, it assumes a full mediation role in the long run and has an effect on crop production in farm-gate N2O emissions. Therefore, targeted use of nitrogen fertilizer and crop rotations to reduce cereal-related N2O and CH4 emissions, respectively, would be viable strategies. The use of a drip irrigation system in fruit production to reduce CH4 emissions and the scaling up of secured subsidies should also be explored. Finally, these recommendations should be incorporated into the Africa’s RTB member states’ Nationally Determined Contributions and the African Union’s Agenda 2063.