Long-Term Atherogenic Dyslipidaemia Burden, Rather than Visit-to-Visit Variability, Is Associated with Carotid Intima–Media Thickness

Background/Objectives: The triglyceride-to-High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL) ratio is an established marker of atherogenic dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance. Although its association with subclinical atherosclerosis has been reported, the relative contributions of long-term TG/HDL burden and visit-to-visit variability to carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) remain unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the differential associations of the longitudinal mean and temporal variability of the TG/HDL ratio with CIMT. Methods: This retrospective single-center observational cohort study included 260 adult patients with at least three years of longitudinal lipid measurements and a standardized carotid ultrasonography assessment. The longitudinal mean TG/HDL ratio and variability indices, including standard deviation, coefficient of variation, average real variability and variability independent of the mean, were calculated. CIMT was measured using B-mode ultrasonography. Associations were assessed using correlation analyses, multivariable linear regression, joint category analyses and stratified analyses according to statin therapy. Results: The longitudinal mean TG/HDL ratio was independently associated with increased CIMT after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. In contrast, TG/HDL variability indices showed no independent association with CIMT and did not improve model performance beyond the mean TG/HDL ratio. Restricted cubic spline analysis demonstrated a significant non-linear association between TG/HDL mean and CIMT, suggesting a threshold-dependent relationship. Joint category analyses demonstrated higher CIMT values in groups with elevated TG/HDL mean regardless of variability status. A significant interaction was observed between TG/HDL variability and statin therapy (p for interaction = 0.011). Conclusions: These findings indicate that cumulative exposure to atherogenic dyslipidaemia, reflected by the long-term mean TG/HDL ratio, is more strongly associated with subclinical carotid atherosclerosis than short-term lipid fluctuations.