The Prospective Indirect Effect of Mathematics Interest in the Relationship Between Mathematics Anxiety and Self-Concept: A Two-Wave Longitudinal Study

Although math anxiety (MA), math interest (MI), and math self-concept (SC) have been investigated separately in the literature, their simultaneous examination within a longitudinal framework remains limited. The present study investigated the longitudinal indirect effect of MI in the relationship between MA and SC, grounded in Control-Value Theory (CVT). A two-wave cross-lagged panel design was employed with a four-month measurement interval. The final analytic sample comprised 543 Turkish middle school students (Grades 6-8). Structural equation modeling (SEM) with 5000 bootstrap resamples was used to test the hypothesized indirect associations, with autoregressive controls included for all constructs. Measurement model fit was confirmed separately for each wave prior to structural estimation. Results indicated that MA at Time 1 negatively predicted both MI (β = −0.157, p < 0.01) and SC (β = −0.150, p < 0.01) at Time 2, while MI at Time 2 positively predicted SC at Time 2 (β = 0.626, p < 0.01). The indirect effect of MA on SC via MI was statistically significant (β = −0.098, 95% CI [−0.167, −0.034]), supporting a prospective indirect association. These findings demonstrate that MI functions as an active motivational mechanism through which early anxiety erodes students’ mathematical self-perceptions over time, and underscore the importance of interventions that simultaneously target MA reduction and interest development to protect SC in early adolescence.