Nonlinear and Congestion-Dependent Effects of Transport and Built-Environment Factors on Urban CO2 Emissions: A GeoAI-Based Analysis of 50 Chinese Cities

Understanding how transport conditions and the built environment shape urban CO2 emissions is critical for low-carbon urban development. This study analyses CO2 emission intensity across fifty major Chinese cities using integrated ODIAC emissions, VIIRS night-time lights, traffic performance indicators, built-environment morphology, population/POI structure, and socioeconomic controls. We develop a GeoAI workflow that couples XGBoost modelling with SHAP interpretation, congestion-based city grouping, and 1 km grid-level GNNWR to map intra-urban spatial non-stationarity. The global model identifies night-time light intensity as the strongest predictor, followed by population density and building density. SHAP results reveal pronounced nonlinearities, with high sensitivity at low–medium levels and diminishing marginal effects as activity and density increase. Although transport indicators are less influential in the aggregate model, their roles differ across congestion regimes: in low-congestion cities, emissions align more consistently with overall activity intensity, whereas in high-congestion cities they respond more strongly to population distribution, motorisation, and built-form intensity, with less stable relationships. Grid-level GNNWR further shows that key mechanisms are spatially uneven within cities, with local effects concentrating in specific cores and corridors or fragmenting across multiple subareas. These findings demonstrate that emission drivers are context-dependent across and within cities. Accordingly, uncongested cities may gain more from activity-related energy-efficiency measures, while highly congested cities may require congestion-sensitive land-use planning, spatial-structure optimisation, and motorisation control. Integrating explainable GeoAI with regime differentiation and spatial heterogeneity mapping provides actionable evidence for targeted low-carbon planning.