Assessment of Human–Bear Conflict Through Time and Space: A Case Study from Ilgaz District, Türkiye

The brown bear (Ursus arctos) occurs across several regions of Türkiye and occasionally damages beehives near rural settlements. This study examines temporal data and the spatial arrangement of beehive damage incidents recorded in the Ilgaz district of Çankırı, Türkiye during 2023–2024. The temporal data were evaluated across lunar phases. A chi-square test showed that incidents did not distribute evenly. A higher frequency was found during the Waxing Crescent phase. Spatial intensity was mapped using Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), where bandwidth selection followed a cross-validation procedure. KDE results showed clear concentrations of incidents in the southern and southwestern parts of the district, while other areas recorded few or none. A Decision Tree (DT) classifier based on eleven environmental variables was used to identify predictors of incident presence. The DT achieved an AUC of 0.808. It identified “distance to settlement” as the primary separating variable, followed by “distance to road”, “distance to forest”, and the “Human Footprint Index”. Beehive damage followed a non-random temporal pattern across lunar phases. It clustered near settlements. Conflict timing followed both environmental conditions and human activity. The findings provide an empirical basis for reducing apiary losses and improving coexistence measures between local communities and brown bears in the Ilgaz region.