Prognostic Performance of the Korean Triage and Acuity Scale Combined with the National Early Warning Score for Predicting Mortality and ICU Admission at Emergency Department Triage: A Retrospective Observational Study

Objectives: This study aimed to compare the predictive performance of the Korean Triage and Acuity Scale (KTAS) and the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for serious adverse events (SAEs), including mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission, during emergency department (ED) stay. We also evaluated whether combining the two systems improves prediction accuracy. Methods: This retrospective study included adult patients (≥19 years) who presented to a university-affiliated ED between October and December 2024. KTAS and NEWS were assessed simultaneously at triage. NEWS2 was calculated retrospectively based on routinely documented vital signs and medical history without performing routine arterial blood gas analysis. The primary outcome was the occurrence of SAE during the ED stay. Predictive performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the curve (AUC), and logistic regression models were used to identify independent associations. Results: A total of 4216 patients were analyzed, of whom 255 (6.0%) experienced SAEs. All three scores—KTAS, NEWS and NEWS2—were independently associated with the occurrence of SAEs. The AUCs for KTAS, NEWS and NEWS2 were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74–0.76), 0.73 (95% CI, 0.71–0.74) and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.71–0.74), respectively. Combining KTAS with NEWS or NEWS2 significantly improved predictive accuracy (AUC 0.81, 95% CI 0.79–0.82; p < 0.001). Conclusions: Both KTAS and NEWS/NEWS2 reliably predicted in-ED adverse outcomes, and their combination further enhanced prognostic performance. Integrating physiology-based early warning scores with structured triage systems may help identify high-risk ED patients earlier and optimize resource allocation.