Traffic-Predictive Drone Scheduling: Day-Ahead Synchronization of Mobile Depots and Parallel Aerial Sorties in Urban Airspace

Urban Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) logistics operations are frequently constrained by the intersection of limited battery endurance and dynamic ground traffic. When mobile depots are delayed by congestion, onboard drone fleets experience extended idling periods, leading to constrained sortie generation and reduced asset utilization. To address this bottleneck, this paper introduces a traffic-predictive multi-UAV dispatch framework for deterministic day-ahead planning under modeled urban operating conditions. By coupling a count-derived macroscopic speed surrogate learned using XGBoost with a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)–Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization architecture, the framework synchronizes mobile depot trajectories with forecasted low-congestion windows and pre-allocates endurance-feasible parallel aerial sorties. Controlled computational experiments across 30 synthetic routing instances demonstrate the potential value of this approach within the stated modeling assumptions. Compared to baseline clustered deployments, the traffic-aware framework raises mean fleet utilization from 0.43 to 0.63—a 46.2% relative improvement driven by temporal compression of the mission window rather than an absolute increase in flight hours. Furthermore, the proposed framework reduces total mission completion time by 69.87% relative to the conventional truck-only baseline, while achieving a 29.58% incremental gain over static speed drone deployments. These findings suggest that incorporating predictive ground traffic information into day-ahead UAV scheduling can improve modeled fleet efficiency; however, field validation with measured route-level speeds, real delivery demand, and operational constraints remains necessary before deployment-level claims can be made.