Remote-Sensing Carbon Stock Dynamics and Carbon-Market Valuation in Ecuador’s Churute Mangrove Ecological Reserve (2015–2021)

Mangrove ecosystems are recognized as highly efficient blue-carbon reservoirs, yet their monitoring requires scalable, transparent methods suitable for climate-finance and greenhouse-gas accounting applications. This study quantifies interannual carbon-stock dynamics and derives a carbon-market valuation indicator for Ecuador’s Churute Mangrove Ecological Reserve (2015–2021) using publicly available remote-sensing land-cover products. Annual activity data were derived from Copernicus Global Land Service LC100 (100 m, 2015–2019) and ESA WorldCover (10 m, 2020–2021), harmonized to a common reporting scheme, and combined with IPCC Tier 1 default coefficients for biomass and soil organic carbon in tropical wetlands. Total carbon stocks averaged 1.67 million t C across the period, remaining stable within the internally consistent LC100 phase (2015–2019), with trend statistics treated as descriptive given the short annual series, while a pronounced drop in 2020 primarily reflected methodological discontinuities between products rather than ecological change. Converted to CO2e equivalents (mean 6.1 million t CO2e), illustrative market values fluctuated between USD 18 and 123 million annually, driven predominantly by carbon-price variability. This remote-sensing-based, MRV-aligned approach provides a conservative baseline for protected-area blue-carbon accounting, highlighting the need for homogeneous high-resolution time series to distinguish real dynamics from classification artifacts in future assessments.