Psychometric Modeling of Academic Engagement and Dropout Propensity in Higher Education: An Item Response Theory Analysis

Student dropout remains a persistent challenge for higher education systems, with consequences for student trajectories, institutional efficiency, and equity. This study investigates the relationship between student dropout propensity and academic engagement in a sample of 3099 students from all departments of the University of Patras. It asks whether academic engagement is associated with multidimensional dropout propensity and whether the instruments provide sufficient psychometric precision for identifying students at different levels of risk. Using the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale (UWES-9) and the APrISE-15 instrument, Item Response Theory (IRT) was applied to evaluate item functioning and scale adequacy. Higher engagement was associated with lower dropout propensity at both IRT-score level (r = −0.55) and observed-score level (r = −0.58). Dedication showed the strongest facet-level association with dropout propensity (r = −0.53), while the economic and personal dropout domains were most informative at elevated risk levels. These findings highlight the value of precision-aware assessment for identifying domain-specific risk profiles and informing targeted student-support strategies, including academic advising, wellbeing-oriented support, financial counseling, and social-integration initiatives.