The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Flooding Due to Extreme Storm Tides Under Climate Change Projections in the 21st Century: Application to the Kalamaria Littoral Zone (N. Aegean Sea, Greece)

This study investigates the impact of climate-driven Sea Level Rise (SLR) and extreme storm tides on coastal flooding in the urbanised littoral zone of Kalamaria (Thermaikos Gulf, Northern Aegean Sea). High-resolution hydraulic simulations using the CoastFLOOD model are driven by coastal Sea Level Elevation (SLE) extremes derived from simulated results based on the Med-CORDEX regional climate projections to assess historical (1971–2005) and future periods’ (2021–2055, 2066–2100) 50- and 100-year return levels under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. SLEs are derived from storm surges, the highest tidal ranges, and mean/max SLR scenarios for the 21st century. Results indicate substantial increases in inundation extent and exposure of critical infrastructure, coastal assets, and population clusters, highlighting the need for locally tailored adaptation strategies under climate uncertainty.