Quantifying Risk Factors of Violence in Maritime Piracy Incidents Using Categorical Association Measures

Maritime piracy remains a persistent security challenge across several global regions, with violent incidents posing the greatest threat to crew safety and vessel operations.This study investigates the relationship between violent escalation in piracy incidents and a set of contextual and operational variables using classical categorical data statistics.A dataset comprising reported maritime piracy and armed robbery events from 2015-2024 was compiled from IMB, OBP, and IMO sources and analysed through chi-square tests of independence, followed by Cramér's V to quantify the strength of association.The results demonstrate that violence is not randomly distributed across incident characteristics.Geographic region exhibits the strongest measurable association with violent outcomes, reflecting the influence of regional security dynamics and the presence of organized criminal networks.Attack type and weapon type show additional, though weaker, associations, indicating that close-range engagement and the presence of firearms increase the likelihood of escalation.Vessel type, flag state, and seasonal timing display only marginal effects.Overall, the findings highlight that the probability of violence during piracy events is primarily shaped by spatial context and tactical execution.The study confirms that chisquare and Cramér's V offer a transparent, interpretable framework for identifying key risk factors and can serve as a foundation for operational threat assessments and maritime security planning.