Image-Based Spatio-Temporal Graph Learning for Diffusion Forecasting in Digital Management Systems

With the widespread application of high-resolution remote sensing imagery and unmanned aerial vehicle technologies in agricultural scenarios, accurately characterizing spatial pest diffusion from multi-temporal images has become a critical issue in intelligent agricultural management. To overcome the limitations of existing machine learning approaches that focus mainly on static recognition and lack effective spatio-temporal diffusion modeling, a UAV-based pest diffusion prediction and simulation framework is proposed. Multi-temporal UAV RGB and multispectral imagery are jointly modeled using a graph-based representation of farmland parcels, while temporal modeling and environmental embedding mechanisms are incorporated to enable simultaneous prediction of diffusion intensity and propagation paths. Experiments conducted on two real agricultural regions, Bayan Nur and Tangshan, demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms representative spatio-temporal baselines. Compared with ST-GCN, the proposed framework achieves approximately 17–22% reductions in MAE and MSE, together with 8–12% improvements in PMR, while maintaining robust classification performance with precision, recall, and F1-score exceeding 0.82. These results indicate that the proposed approach can provide reliable support for agricultural information systems and diffusion-aware decision generation.