Patch Time Series Transformer−Based Short−Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Enhanced by Artificial Fish

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Authors: Xin Lv, Shuhui Cui, Yue Wang, Jinye Lu, Puming Yu, Kai Wang
Cited by: 36
References: 60

Abstract

The reliability and economic operation of power systems increasingly depend on renewable energy, making accurate short−term photovoltaic (PV) power prediction essential. Conventional approaches struggle with the nonlinear and stochastic characteristics of PV data. This study proposes an enhanced prediction framework integrating Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm–Isolation Forest (AFSA–IF) anomaly detection, Generative Adversarial Network−based feature extraction, multimodal data fusion, and a Patch Time Series Transformer (PatchTST) model. The framework includes advanced preprocessing, fusion of meteorological and historical power data, and weather classification via one−hot encoding. Experiments on datasets from six PV plants show significant improvements in mean absolute error, root mean square error, and coefficient of determination compared with Transformer, Reformer, and Informer models. The results confirm the robustness and efficiency of the proposed model, especially under challenging conditions such as rainy weather.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics Photovoltaic System Optimization Techniques Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Publication details

Journal / source
Energies
Publisher
MDPI AG
Volume
19
Issue
1
Pages
284–284
Publication date
5 January 2026
Language
EN