Data-Driven Load Forecasting in Microgrids: Integrating External Factors for Efficient Control and Decision-Making

Accurate load forecasting is essential for optimizing microgrid and smart grid operations, thereby supporting Energy Management Systems (EMSs). Load forecasting also plays a key role in integrating renewable energy, ensuring grid stability, and facilitating decision-making. In this regard, we present a comprehensive literature review that combines both bibliometric analysis and critical literature synthesis to evaluate state-of-the-art forecasting techniques. Based on a screened corpus of over 200 scientific publications from 2015 to 2024, our analysis reveals a significant shift in the field: AI-based approaches, including Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL), represent more than 55% of the analyzed literature, overtaking traditional statistical models. The bibliometric results highlight a 300% increase in publications focusing on ML-based models (e.g., SVM, CNN, LSTM) over the years. Furthermore, approximately 70% of the total reviewed works use at least one exogenous variable, such as weather variables, socioeconomic indicators, and cultural behavior. These findings reflect the transition from traditional statistical models to more flexible and scalable approaches. However, socioeconomic and cultural variables remain underutilized in the literature, particularly for long-term planning. Despite the progress load forecasting processes have made in recent years, thanks to advanced modeling, a few hurdles remain to realizing their full potential in modern microgrids. Thus, we argue that future research should focus on three key areas: (i) scalable real-time adaptive models, including computational complexity characterization, (ii) standardization in data collection for seamless integration of exogenous variables, and (iii) real-world application of forecasting models in decision-making that supports EMSs. Progress in these areas may enhance grid stability, optimize resource allocation, and accelerate the transition to sustainable energy systems.