Surrogate Modeling of a SOFC/GT Hybrid System Based on Extended State Observer Feature Extraction

Solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) and gas turbine (GT) hybrid systems exhibit inherent system uncertainties and unmodeled dynamics during operation, which compromise the accuracy of predicting gas turbine power. This poses challenges for system operation analysis and energy management. To enhance the prediction accuracy and stability of gas turbine power in SOFC/GT hybrid systems, a power prediction method capable of incorporating total system disturbance information is investigated. This study constructs a high-fidelity simulation model of an SOFC/GT hybrid system to generate gas turbine power prediction datasets. With fuel utilization (FU) as the input and gas turbine power as the output, this system is assumed to be a first-order dynamic system. Building upon this foundation, an extended state observer (ESO) is employed to extract the total system disturbance (f) that affects the power output of the gas turbine, excluding fuel utilization. The total disturbance f and fuel utilization are used as inputs to a Backpropagation (BP) neural network to construct a disturbance-aware power prediction model. The predictive performance of the proposed method is evaluated by comparison with a BP neural network without disturbance estimation information and several benchmark models. Simulation results indicate that incorporating the disturbance term estimated by ESO enhances both the accuracy and stability of the BP neural network’s power prediction, particularly under operating conditions characterized by significant power fluctuations. Quantitatively, when comparing the predictive model with disturbance included to the model without disturbance, including the disturbance reduces the prediction error by approximately 89.33% (MSE) and 67.34% (RMSE), while the coefficient of determination R2 increases by 0.1132, demonstrating a substantial improvement in predictive performance under the same test conditions. The research findings indicate that incorporating disturbance information into data-driven prediction models represents a viable modeling approach, providing effective support for predicting gas turbine power in SOFC/GT hybrid systems.