Intelligent Optimization of Ground-Source Heat Pump Systems Based on Gray-Box Modeling

Ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems are widely regarded as an energy-efficient solution for building heating and cooling. However, their actual performance in large commercial buildings is often limited by rigid control strategies, insufficient equipment coordination, and suboptimal load matching. In the Liuzhou Fengqing Port commercial complex, the seasonal coefficient of performance (SCOP) of the GSHP system remains at a relatively low level of 3.0–3.5 under conventional operation. To address these challenges, this study proposes a gray-box-model-based cooperative optimization and group control strategy for GSHP systems. A hybrid gray-box modeling approach (YFU model), integrating physical-mechanism modeling with data-driven parameter identification, is developed to characterize the energy consumption behavior of GSHP units and variable-frequency pumps. On this basis, a multi-equipment cooperative optimization framework is established to coordinate GSHP unit on/off scheduling, load allocation, and pump staging. In addition, continuous operational variables (e.g., chilled-water supply temperature and circulation flow rate) are globally optimized within a hierarchical control structure. The proposed strategy is validated through both simulation analysis and on-site field implementation, demonstrating significant improvements in system energy efficiency, with annual electricity savings of no less than 3.6 × 105 kWh and an increase in SCOP from approximately 3.2 to above 4.0. The results indicate that the proposed framework offers strong interpretability, robustness, and engineering applicability. It also provides a reusable technical paradigm for intelligent energy-saving retrofits of GSHP systems in large commercial buildings.