Situational Deduction and Active Defense for Distribution Networks Under Complex Conditions: A Service-Oriented Digital Twin Approach

In modern distribution networks (DNs), extreme weather events and cascading faults pose severe challenges to operational safety. However, existing defense mechanisms struggle with a core question: How to maintain high-fidelity situational awareness and make precise active decisions when physical parameters drift and historical fault data is scarce? To address this, this paper proposes a situational deduction and active defense framework based on a service-oriented digital twin. First, regarding the modeling fidelity gap, a data–physics fusion mechanism is constructed. By integrating Kirchhoff’s laws with data-driven error correction, it dynamically calibrates time-varying parameters to resolve mapping distortion. Second, regarding the data scarcity bottleneck, a predictive perception method is introduced. Utilizing the digital twin as a generative engine, it augments rare fault samples to enable super-real-time deduction of future trends. Third, regarding the decision-making passivity, a service-driven simulation model is established. It transforms abstract indicators (safety, economy, resilience) into executable constraints, shifting the paradigm from ‘passive response’ to ‘active defense.’ Case studies on a modified IEEE 123-node system demonstrate that the proposed method significantly enhances resilience and decision accuracy under complex conditions.