Driver–Pathway Analysis of EUI in Historic Buildings: Rank Fusion and Rolling Validation

Historic buildings often exhibit high energy use intensity (EUI), while conservation constraints limit envelope retrofits, making it difficult to identify robust and actionable operational predictors. Using four in-use historic buildings in Shenyang, China, this study presents a pilot methodological demonstration with a controlled-comparability workflow consisting of two linked layers: (i) a Driver layer of intervenable operational variables and (ii) a Pathway layer of calibrated EnergyPlus heat-balance terms for physics-informed interpretation. Three importance approaches (Spearman, wrapper RFE with XGBoost, and Random Forest) are compared; rankings are fused via reciprocal rank fusion, and stability is tested using cross-period rolling validation across Top-K feature sets. After similarity screening, EUI variation is better explained by operational predictors and the corresponding simulated loss channels than by macro-scale structural heterogeneity. Infiltration-related indicators and envelope/infiltration loss components remain consistently prominent, while Spearman importance is less stable in the Pathway layer under seasonal switching and nonlinear coupling. A Top-10 subset provides a favorable accuracy–stability trade-off. The proposed Driver–Pathway mapping supports conservation-compatible prioritization hypotheses within a simulation-consistent interpretive framework; findings are associational and context dependent and should be validated through field measurements and experimental or quasi-experimental studies before prescriptive claims are made.