Research on Carbon Emission Reduction Path Planning in the Electrolytic Aluminum Industry Driven by New Energy

Against the backdrop of global decarbonization in energy-intensive industries, the primary aluminum sector has become a critical field for deep industrial decarbonization due to its high electricity consumption, large share of indirect carbon emissions, and complex mitigation pathways. This challenge is particularly salient in regions endowed with abundant renewable resources while hosting concentrated industrial electricity demand, where coordinated mitigation across technological upgrading and energy system transformation has broad practical relevance. Using Xining in Qinghai Province, China, a renewable-rich region, as an illustrative case, this study systematically examines the major carbon mitigation pathways in the primary aluminum industry, including mining, alumina production, electrolytic cell retrofitting, power system coordination, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). A multi-objective optimization model is developed to minimize marginal abatement costs (MAC) while maximizing technological application performance, and the sequential unconstrained minimization technique (SUMT) is employed to optimize mitigation pathways under short-, medium-, and long-term scenarios. The results show that, in the short term (before 2030), emission reduction mainly relies on improvements in electrolysis efficiency, leading to a mitigation pattern dominated by reductions in electricity consumption per unit of output. In the medium term (before 2035), the pathway shifts from isolated process optimization to a coordinated strategy combining process upgrading with power decarbonization, exhibiting a structural mitigation pattern driven by synergy between the production side and the energy side. In the long term (before 2060), the pathway evolves toward a stage dominated by energy system reconfiguration and carbon utilization. With high shares of renewable electricity integration, DC power supply configurations, and energy storage support, primary aluminum production is expected to achieve deep decarbonization on the power side. This study provides a transferable analytical framework and policy-relevant insights for the low-carbon transition of energy-intensive industries in renewable-rich regions.