Campfire: Innovative Cost Modeling and Market Forecasting for Ammonia as a Maritime Fuel

In recent years, Ammonia has emerged as a promising carbon-free fuel alternative, offering considerable potential to reduce CO2 emissions and contribute to the decarbonization of the transportation industry. This study focuses on the economic feasibility and market price of ammonia now and in the future, highlighting the necessary infrastructure for emission-free transport operation. The project compares various production pathways for alternative fuels including hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, LNG, and diesel, considering both “green” and “gray” production methods. A key output of this research is the development of a flexible cost calculation tool, which allows users to simulate various scenarios by adjusting variables to ensure the continuity of the project. This tool enables dynamic analysis of future fuel prices and operational costs, accounting for the fluctuating electricity prices for green ammonia production and the long-term rise in CO2 prices. Moreover, the study provides detailed cost modeling, infrastructure requirements, and refueling options for ammonia in comparison to other fuels. The findings indicate that ammonia is a promising long-term option for the maritime sector. While the adaptation to ammonia-based engines remains in the research phase, the long-term benefits of lower emissions and operating costs justify the investment in the necessary research and infrastructure, such as storage and refueling facilities.