Analysis of the Evolution and Driving Factors of Nitrogen Balance in Zhejiang Province from 2011 to 2021

With rapid socioeconomic development and intensified human activities, nitrogen (N) loads have continued to rise, exerting significant impacts on the environment. Most existing studies focus on single cities or short time periods, which limits their ability to capture nitrogen dynamics under rapid urbanization. Based on statistical data from multiple cities in Zhejiang Province from 2011 to 2021, this study applied nitrogen balance accounting and statistical analysis to systematically evaluate the spatiotemporal variations in nitrogen inputs, outputs, and surpluses, as well as their driving factors. The results indicate that although nitrogen inputs and outputs fluctuated over the past decade, the overall nitrogen surplus showed an increasing trend, with the nitrogen surplus per unit area rising from 49.89 kg/(ha·a) in 2011 to 62.59 kg/(ha·a) in 2021. Zhejiang’s nitrogen load was higher than the national average but remained below the levels of highly urbanized regions such as the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. Accelerated urbanization and increasing anthropogenic pressures were identified as major contributors to the rising nitrogen surplus, with significant inter-city disparities. Cities like Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, and Jinhua were found to face higher risks of nitrogen pollution. Redundancy analysis and Pearson correlation analysis revealed that nitrogen surplus was positively correlated with cropland area, livestock population, total population, precipitation, GDP, and industrial output, further highlighting the dominant role of human activities in nitrogen cycling. This study provides the long-term quantitative assessment of nitrogen balance under multi-city coupling at the provincial scale and identifies key influencing factors. These findings provide scientific support for integrated nitrogen management across multiple environmental compartments in Zhejiang Province, including surface water, groundwater, agricultural systems, and urban wastewater, under conditions of rapid urbanization.