Evaluation of Residential Indoor Radon Levels in Zagreb Using Machine Learning

Machine learning (ML) models can complement traditional measurement-based approaches by supporting large-scale screening, spatial analysis, and prioritization of buildings for testing of indoor radon, a leading cause of lung cancer among non-smokers. Originating from uranium decay in soil and rock, radon enters homes via foundation cracks and accumulates indoors, influenced by building characteristics, ventilation, urbanization, and geogenic factors. As part of the Zagreb pilot within the “Evidence Driven Indoor Air Quality Improvement” (EDIAQI) project, this is the first ML application for indoor radon analysis in Croatia. This research evaluates residential indoor radon concentrations in Zagreb using ML applied to a dataset of 80 households. Several linear regression and tree-based ensemble methods were tested. The best-performing model (GBR) achieved an R2 of 0.99 on the training set and 0.57 on the test set, with an RMSE of 33 Bq/m3 and MAE of 26 Bq/m3. Although predictive performance was moderate and generalization limited, key building characteristics such as construction year, dwelling type, occupancy details, and floor level were identified as relevant variables. The results suggest that machine learning may support radon risk prioritization in urban environments, but cannot replace direct measurements for regulatory purposes.