Responses of Dominant Tree Species Phenology to Climate Change in the Ailao Mountains Mid-Subtropical Evergreen Broad-Leaved Forest (2008–2022)

Plant phenology is a sensitive indicator of ecosystem responses to climate change, yet its dynamics and drivers in subtropical montane forests remain poorly understood. Based on the continuous phenological monitoring of 12 dominant tree species from 2008 to 2022 in a mid-subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest on Ailao Mountains, China, this study analyzed phenological shifts and their climatic drivers. The results show that, (1) unlike the widely reported trends in northern mid-to-high latitudes, spring phenophases (budburst and leaf-out) did not exhibit significant advancing trends, while autumn phenophases (leaf coloration and fall) remained stable; (2) water availability played a dominant role in regulating spring phenology, with both budburst and leaf-out showing significant negative correlations with winter-spring precipitation, and responses varied significantly across hydrological year types; and (3) the life form strongly influenced phenological strategies, with evergreen species exhibiting earlier spring phenology than deciduous species. This study highlights that in seasonally humid subtropical montane forests, water availability exerts a stronger control on phenology than temperature. Our findings underscore the necessity of incorporating precipitation variability and functional trait differences into assessments of forest phenology and ecosystem functioning under future climate change, providing a scientific basis for the conservation and adaptive management of subtropical forests.