Spatiotemporal Patterns of Aboveground Carbon Storage in Hainan Mangroves Based on Machine Learning and Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data

As an essential blue carbon ecosystem, mangroves play a vital role in coastal protection, biodiversity conservation, and climate regulation. However, their complex and variable growth environments pose challenges for precise monitoring. Hainan Island represents a region within China where mangrove forests are the most concentrated and diverse in type. In recent years, ecological restoration efforts have led to the recovery of their coverage areas. This study analyzed the spatial distribution, canopy height, and aboveground carbon storage variations in Hainan mangrove forests. Deep-learning and multiple machine-learning algorithms were used to integrate multitemporal Sentinel-2 remote sensing imagery from 2019 to 2023 with unmanned aerial vehicle observations and field survey data. Multi-rule image fusion and deep-learning techniques effectively enhanced mangrove identification accuracy. The mangrove classification achieved an overall accuracy exceeding 90%. The mangrove area in Hainan increased from 3948.83 ha in 2019 to 4304.29 ha in 2023. Gradient-boosted decision tree (GBDT) models estimated average canopy height with a high coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.89), and Random Forest (RF) models yielded the best estimations of total above-ground carbon stock with strong agreement to field observations. Integrating multisource remote sensing data with artificial intelligence algorithms enabled high-precision dynamic monitoring of mangrove distribution, structure, and carbon storage to provide scientific support for the assessment, management, and carbon sink accounting of Hainan mangrove ecosystems.