The Impact of New Quality Productivity on Fishery Industrial Chain Resilience: Evidence from a Dual Machine Learning Model

Fisheries are fundamental for food security, and enhancing fishery industry chain resilience (FCR) is essential for safeguarding national supply and promoting high-quality development. With the rapid advancement of new quality productivity (NQP), its integration into the fishery industry chain provides a critical pathway to resilience enhancement and modernization. Using provincial-level data from China between 2012 and 2022, this study evaluates FCR across 29 provinces. A dual machine-learning framework is applied to assess the effects of a provincial NQP index on FCR and its underlying mechanisms. The results show that NQP has a statistically significant positive effect on overall FCR, with estimated coefficients ranging from 0.221 to 0.223 across model specifications. Dimension-specific analysis reveals pronounced heterogeneity: NQP significantly enhances resistance and recovery capacity (rr) as well as innovation and transformation capacity (it), while exerting a negative effect on adjustment and adaptive capacity (aa). Its impact on green ecological restoration capacity (ger) is positive but not statistically significant. Regional heterogeneity analysis shows that the resilience-enhancing effect of NQP is more pronounced in coastal provinces than in inland regions. Mechanism analysis suggests that improvements in labor productivity constitute a key channel through which NQP strengthens FCR. These findings highlight the importance of regionally differentiated strategies for promoting resilient and sustainable fishery development.