Smart Prediction of Rockburst Risks Using Microseismic Data and K-Nearest Neighbor Classification

Effective mitigation of geotechnical risk and safety management of underground mine requires accurate estimation of rockburst damage potential. The inherent complexity of the rockburst phenomena due to nonlinear, high dimensional, and interdependent nature of the geological factors involved, however, makes predictive modeling a difficult task. The proposed research is based on the use of the K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) algorithm to predict the risk of rockbursts with the use of microseismic monitoring data. Several key features like the ratio of total maximum principal stress to uniaxial compressive strength, energy capacity of support system, excavation span, geology factor, Richter magnitude of seismic event, distance between rockburst location and microseismic event, and rock density were applied as input parameters to extract critical rockburst precursor activities. In the test stage, the proposed KNN model recorded an accuracy of 75.50%, a precision of 0.913, a recall value of 0.509, and F1 Score of 0.576. The model is reliable with a significant performance indicating its efficacy in practice. The KNN model showed better classification results as compared to recently available models in literature and provided better generalization and interpretability. The model exhibited high prediction in classified low-risk incidents and had strong indicative capabilities towards high-risk situations, attributed to being a useful tool in rockburst hazard measurement.