SBAS-InSAR Quantifies Groundwater–Urban Construction Evolution Impacts on Tianjin’s Land Subsidence

Land subsidence constitutes a critical hazard to coastal megacities globally, amplifying flood risks and damaging infrastructure. Taking Tianjin—a major port city underlain by compressible sediments and affected by groundwater over-exploitation—as a case study, we address two key research gaps: the absence of a quantitative framework coupling groundwater extraction with construction land expansion, and the inadequate separation of seasonal and long-term subsidence drivers. We developed an integrated remote-sensing-based approach: high-resolution subsidence time series (2016–2023) were derived via Small BAseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-InSAR) using Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery, validated against leveling measurements (R > 0.885, error < 20 mm). This subsidence dataset was fused with groundwater level records and annual construction land maps. Seasonal-Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) isolated trend, seasonal, and residual components, which were input into a Random Forest (RF) model to quantify the relative contributions of subsidence drivers. Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) and Cross-Wavelet Transform (CWT) were further employed to characterize temporal patterns and lag effects between subsidence and its drivers. Our results reveal a distinct shifting subsidence pattern: “areal expansion but intensity weakening.” Groundwater control policies mitigated five historical subsidence funnels, reducing areas with severe subsidence from 72.36% to