Unequal Progress in Early-Onset Bladder Cancer Control: Global Trends, Socioeconomic Disparities, and Policy Efficiency from 1990 to 2021

Background: This study investigates the global burden of early-onset bladder cancer (EOBC) from 1990 to 2021, highlighting regional disparities and the growing role of metabolic risk factors. Early-onset bladder cancer (EOBC), diagnosed before age 50, is an emerging global health concern. While less common than kidney cancer, EOBC contributes substantially to mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), with marked sex disparities. Its global epidemiology remains unassessed systematically. Methods: Using GBD 1990–2021 data, we analyzed EOBC incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs across 204 countries in individuals aged 15–49. Trends were examined via segmented regression, EAPC, and Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling. Inequality was quantified using SII and CI. Decomposition and SDI-efficiency frontier analyses were introduced. Results: From 1990 to 2021, EOBC incidence rose 62.2%, prevalence 73.1%, deaths 15.3%, and DALYs 15.8%. Middle-SDI regions bore the highest burden. Aging drove trends in high-SDI areas and population growth in low-SDI regions. Over 25% of high-SDI countries underperformed in incidence/prevalence control. Smoking remained the leading risk factor, with rising hyperglycemia burdens in high-income areas. Males carried over twice the female burden, peaking at age 45–49. Conclusions: EOBC shows sustained global growth with middle-aged concentration and significant regional disparities. Structural inefficiencies highlight the need for enhanced screening, early warning, and tailored resource allocation.