Game-Theoretic Assessment of Grid-Scale Hydrogen Energy Storage Adoption in Island Grids of the Philippines

This study introduces an integrated Life Cycle Assessment–Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis–Nash Equilibrium (LCA–MCDA–NE) framework to assess the feasibility of hydrogen energy storage (HES) in Philippine island grids. It starts with a cradle-to-gate LCA of hydrogen production across various electricity mix scenarios, from diesel-dominated Small Power Utilities Group (SPUG) systems to high-renewable configurations, quantifying greenhouse gas emissions. These impacts are normalized and integrated into an MCDA framework that considers four stakeholder perspectives: Regulatory (PRF), Developer (DF), Scientific (SF), and Local Social (LSF). Attribute utilities for Maintainability, Energy Efficiency, Geographic–Climatic Suitability, and Regulatory Compliance inform a 2 × 2 strategic game where net utility gain (Δ) and switching costs (C1, C2) influence adoption behavior. The findings indicate that the baseline Nash Equilibrium favors non-adoption due to limited utility gains and high switching barriers. However, enhancements in Maintainability and reduced costs can shift this equilibrium toward adoption. The LCA results show that meaningful decarbonization occurs only when low-carbon generation exceeds 60% of the electricity mix. This integrated framework highlights that successful HES deployment in remote grids relies on stakeholder coordination, reduced risks, and access to low-carbon electricity, offering a replicable model for emerging economies.