SWAT-Based Assessment of the Water Regulation Index Under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Scenarios in the San Pedro River Basin

This study evaluated the water supply and regulation of the San Pedro River basin, located in the municipality of Puerto Libertador (Córdoba, Colombia), under climate change scenarios, using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. The model was calibrated and validated in SWAT-CUP using the SUFI-2 algorithm, based on observed streamflow series and sensitive hydrological parameters. Observed and satellite climate data, CHIRPS for precipitation and ERA5-Land for temperature, radiation, humidity, and wind, were employed. Climatic data were integrated along with spatial information on soils, land use, and topography, allowing for an adequate representation of the basin’s heterogeneity. The model showed acceptable performance (NSE > 0.6; PBIAS < ±15%), reproducing the seasonal variability and the average flow behavior. Climate projections under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, derived from the MIROC5 model (CMIP5), indicated a slight decrease in mean streamflow and an increase in interannual variability for the period 2040–2070, suggesting a potential reduction in surface water availability and natural hydrological regulation by mid-century. The Water Regulation Index (WRI) exhibited a downward trend in most sub-basins, particularly in areas affected by forest loss and agricultural expansion. The WRI showed a downward trend in most sub-basins, especially those with loss of forest cover and a predominance of agricultural uses. These findings provide basin-specific evidence on how climate change and land-use pressures may jointly affect hydrological regulation in tropical Andean–Caribbean basins. These results highlight the usefulness of the SWAT model as a decision-support tool for integrated water resources management in the San Pedro River basin and similar tropical Andean–Caribbean catchments, supporting basin-scale climate adaptation planning. They also emphasize the importance of conserving headwater ecosystems and forest cover to sustain hydrological regulation, reduce vulnerability to flow extremes, and enhance long-term regional water security.