Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Recharge Fluctuations on Cutoff Wall Effectiveness for Freshwater Lens Development and Seawater Intrusion Mitigation in Unconfined Island Aquifers

Sea-level rise (SLR) and regional precipitation pattern change cause island subsurface freshwater, typically shaped like a thin lens, to be at higher risk of contamination from seawater intrusion (SWI). Installing a cutoff wall is considered a feasible strategy for protecting coastal fresh groundwater from SWI. However, the performance of the cutoff wall in managing freshwater lens (FWL) development and mitigating SWI into island aquifers under SLR and aquifer recharge (RCH) fluctuations remains inadequately quantified. This study investigates how water table elevation (WTE), FWL depth, thickness, and SWI extent, measured by aquifer salt mass and freshwater volume, in an island aquifer equipped with cutoff walls, respond to SLR and RCH fluctuations. It focuses on a two-dimensional, variable-density island groundwater simulation model based on hydrogeological conditions of San Salvador Island, Bahamas. The results demonstrate that RCH critically influences cutoff wall effectiveness for FWL development and SWI mitigation, with higher RCH amplifying gains in WTE, FWL metrics, freshwater storage, and aquifer salt removal, but this influence diminishes with wall depth increasing. SLR elevates WTE in a stable manner associated with its magnitude but negligibly affects the cutoff wall performance in FWL enhancement and SWI mitigation. Under simultaneous SLR and RCH fluctuations, SLR can offset the WTE reduction caused by reduced RCH, but the joint effects of SLR and RCH on FWL metrics, freshwater storage and aquifer salt removal align with their individual impacts. Moreover, cutoff walls are more efficient in low-RCH settings, yielding greater relative improvements in FWL development and SWI mitigation per unit wall depth increase.