Quantum-Based Method to Estimate Future Tax Compositions: Application to the Case of Foreign Trade in Mexico

Using a method inspired by quantum principles, this study estimates the composition of various types of tax contributions expected from foreign trade operations. The estimation approach is proposed considering the superposition of expectations and disturbances—fundamental elements of quantum methods—that add complexity to the forecasts of tax collections. For instance, the contributions of international trade-related taxes may be determined not only by the country’s degree of regional integration but also by the composition of tax revenue that depends on the kind and use of merchandise. Using the case of Mexico’s imports, the methodology illustrates how the expectations of collecting certain taxes—like the General Import Tariff (GIT) and the Value Added Tax (VAT)—would be impacted by fluctuations in others—such as the Special Tax on Production and Services (STPS). The hypothesis of this study is that, through the proposed quantum-inspired methodology, it is possible to establish future scenarios of tax revenue compositions while maintaining fiscal consistency by anticipating potential outcomes in the adjustments of contributions if the recently proposed fiscal reform is approved by the Mexican Government. This work contributes to the academic literature on public finance management by advancing a methodology that can support the strategic formulation of fiscal expectations and policy.