Risk Aversion, Self-Control, Commitment Savings Device and Benchmark-Defined Undersaving Among Nano Enterprises in Urban Slums: A Logistic Regression Approach

Low-income individuals are unlikely to save relatively large sums on a regular basis; however, many still fall short of even the modest threshold required for long-term financial security. This study examines the determinants of benchmark-defined undersaving among retail e-payment agents (REAs) operating in the urban slums of Lagos, Nigeria. We use a contingent valuation survey, descriptive analysis, and logistic regression to examine how selected behavioural and demographic factors, alongside a 60-day experimental intervention—the Programmed Microsaving Scheme (PMSS), a hard daily commitment savings device—affect the likelihood of undersaving, defined as saving less than 12% of each REA’s average daily income. While the PMSS appears to have contributed to improvements in post-treatment saving participation and performance among REAs, it did not significantly increase the likelihood of reaching or exceeding the benchmark savings threshold. Consistent with this, average daily income, age, gender, marital status, education, and religion are statistically insignificant predictors of benchmark-defined undersaving. In contrast, self-control, measured using a literature-validated instrument, exhibits a statistically significant negative association with benchmark-defined undersaving, indicating that higher self-control reduces the likelihood of failing to meet the benchmark. Measured risk aversion similarly shows no significant association. Notably, this study introduces a novel 60-day PMSS, co-designed with REAs and neobanks to accommodate daily income savings—a characteristic of the informal sector largely overlooked in the literature on commitment savings devices. From a policy perspective, the findings suggest that while short-horizon commitment devices (such as the 60-day PMSS) and financial literacy are associated with improvements in microsavings among low-income daily earners, achieving benchmark-level saving might require longer-term and more adaptive mechanisms that address income volatility and mitigate other inherent risks.