Geopolitical Risks and Global Stock Market Dynamics: A Quantile-Based Approach

This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risk measures (aggregate geopolitical risk, geopolitical acts, and geopolitical threats) on 40 global stock market indexes from developed and emerging markets for a sample of 20 years. By employing simultaneous quantile regression and a Two-Stage Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (QQR) framework, we analyze the risk transmission mechanisms across the conditional distribution of stock returns. The empirical results reveal a notable regime-dependent reversal: a negative influence is exerted by geopolitical risk during a bullish market regime, while a counterintuitive positive association is present for the bearish market conditions. This effect is more pronounced for emerging and commodity-rich markets, which may provide a potential hedge during supply-side shocks. Moreover, the QQR analysis focused on the United States of America stock market provides an examination of the different potential transmission mechanisms of geopolitical variants. The results suggest that geopolitical threats (GPRT) represent a persistent factor that negatively affects the market for normal and bullish market regimes, while geopolitical acts (GPRA) represent a tail-risk catalyst that exacerbates losses during severe market crashes. The results remain robust to an alternative specification of returns and indicate the necessity of distinguishing between geopolitical acts and threats from a risk management standpoint, as well as correctly identifying the market regime.