Spatiotemporal Imbalances in Dockless Bike-Sharing Usage: Evidence from Shanghai

Rebalancing shared bikes poses a significant challenge for dockless bike-sharing (DLBS) operators, as inevitable spatiotemporal mismatches between demand and supply lead to high redistribution costs. Despite its operational significance, empirical research on the spatiotemporal imbalance of DLBS usage and its underlying drivers remain limited. Utilizing one month’s extensive trajectories of shared bikes in Shanghai, China, this study quantifies DLBS net flows at fine-grained grid level by hour to capture demand–supply imbalances across both spatial and temporal dimensions. To uncover dominant patterns in DLBS imbalance, we employ non-negative matrix factorization, a matrix decomposition technique, to extract latent structure of DLBS net flows. Four distinct patterns are identified: self-sustained balance, morning peak outflow, morning peak inflow, and metro-driven imbalance. We further apply multinomial logit models (MNL) to examine how these patterns are associated with different built environment characteristics. The results show that higher population density, greater diversity of points of interest, and proximity to city centers promote more balanced DLBS flows, whereas high road network density and concentrations of subway stations, residential communities, and firms intensify imbalances. These findings provide valuable insights for enhancing the operational efficiency of DLBS systems and supporting informed transportation management and urban planning practices.