Quantitative Evaluation Method for Source-Load Complementarity and System Regulation Capacity Across Multi-Time Scales

Accurate assessment of source-load complementarity and system regulation capacity is critical for secure dispatch and planning in high-penetration renewable power systems. Addressing limitations of existing methods—which rely heavily on static metrics, struggle to capture temporal and tail dependence characteristics, and provide insufficient support for dispatch decisions—this paper proposes a multi-level integrated evaluation framework. First, from a source—load matching perspective, we develop a novel complementarity metric, integrating real-time rate of change, temporal consistency, and tail dependency. An improved adaptive noise-complete set empirical mode decomposition combined with a hybrid Copula model is employed to isolate noise and to precisely quantify dynamic dependency structures. Second, we introduce the Minkowski measure and construct a net load fluctuation domain accounting for extreme fluctuations and coupling relationships. Subsequently, combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with probabilistic convolution enables multi-level comparative quantification of resource capacity and fluctuation domain requirements under varying confidence levels. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed framework not only provides a more robust assessment of source-load complementarity but also quantitatively outputs the adequacy and risk level of system regulation capacity. This delivers hierarchical, actionable decision support for dispatch planning, significantly enhancing the engineering applicability of evaluation outcomes.