Risk Assessment of Distribution Network Based on Dirichlet Process Mixture Model and the Cumulant Method

To address the increased operational risk in distribution network caused by the grid integration of distributed wind power, a distribution network risk assessment method that combines a Dirichlet process mixture model (DPMM) with the cumulant method (CM) is proposed, to achieve effective quantification of operational risk. Firstly, a DPMM is employed to cluster wind power output data, and adaptive kernel density estimation is introduced to construct a probabilistic model of wind power output, thereby improving local fitting accuracy. Secondly, uncertainties arising from wind generation and load are considered, and a probabilistic power flow model for the distribution network is established based on the CM and the Gram–Charlier series expansion, in order to obtain the probability distributions of state variables and branch power flows. Then, distribution entropy theory is introduced to quantify the severity of limit violations for state variables such as voltage and power, so that operational risk assessment is enabled. Finally, simulations are conducted on a modified IEEE 34-bus distribution test system, and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.