OH-MEMA: An Integrated One Health Mixed-Effects Modeling Approach for Syndromic Surveillance

Background/Objectives: Integrating heterogeneous One Health time series into transparent and usable surveillance workflows remains difficult because data preparation, modeling, and interpretation are often separated across tools. In this paper, we introduce OH-MEMA (One Health Mixed-Effects Modeling and Analytics), an interactive visual analytics framework that integrates heterogeneous One Health data streams, including human clinical outcomes, environmental factors, and wastewater surveillance data, to support syndromic surveillance and pandemic preparedness. Methods: The system enables users to upload and analyze multi-source datasets through an interactive web-based interface. The modeling component supports fixed effects for multi-source predictors, random effects for spatial, temporal, and demographic grouping variables, optional random slopes, and rolling time-series validation. Model results are visualized as time series comparing observed and predicted outcomes, with evaluation metrics including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and correlation. To support iterative exploration, the system incorporates analytic provenance through a visual model tree that records prior configurations. Results: OH-MEMA was validated through both quantitative and qualitative evaluations. Quantitatively, mixed-effects models were assessed across multiple counties and outcomes using RMSE, MAE, and correlation, demonstrating robust predictive performance. Qualitatively, expert users, including epidemiologists and disease surveillance analysts, evaluated the system using the NASA Task Load Index and open-ended interviews, indicating improved interpretability, manageable cognitive workload, and effective workflow integration. Conclusions: OH-MEMA provides an interpretable, human-in-the-loop platform for exploratory forecasting and comparative model analysis in syndromic surveillance. The framework effectively bridges data integration, modeling, and interpretation, supporting user-centered analytical reasoning and decision-making in One Health applications.