Development Efficiency Assessment of Challenging Hydrates Under Reservoir Fracturing and Thermal Stimulation Using an XGBoost-SHAP Framework

Reservoir fracturing combined with thermal stimulation is a highly promising strategy for the development of challenging hydrates. However, the synergistic influence mechanisms of multiple engineering parameters on productivity remain poorly understood. In this study, based on the geological condition of the SH2 site in the Shenhu Area of the South China Sea, a numerical model was built to investigate the development efficiency of challenging hydrates under fracturing and thermal co-stimulation. Using average gas production rates (m3/d) at recovery rates of 0.70 and 0.85 as assessment indicators, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) algorithms were employed to quantitatively measure multivariable importance. The results indicated that enhancing the inter-well interaction through reservoir fracturing can increase development efficiency by 2 to 5 times; however, it is not the case that larger-scale fracturing is always preferable, as it can lead to more severe water flooding. Additionally, data-driven models revealed that fracture length (SHAP values of 15.55 and 9.19) was the primary factor influencing development efficiency, followed by the fracture conductivity (SHAP values of 6.65 and 6.32), whereas injection pressure (SHAP values of 2.90 and 2.17), injection temperature (SHAP values of 2.41 and 2.13), and production pressure (SHAP values of 2.37 and 1.82) had relatively limited influences. Most importantly, the positive interaction effect between fracture length and fracture conductivity cannot be ignored. In our simulation, the recommended fracture length and conductivity were 40 m and 100 D·cm, respectively. These findings provide important insights and guidance for implementing this novel co-stimulation method in challenging hydrates.