Multi-Decadal Impacts of Coastal Reclamation on Tidal Hydrodynamics in a Semi-Enclosed Bay: A Case Study of Yueqing Bay

Coastal reclamation reshapes tidal hydrodynamics in semi-enclosed bays by removing intertidal storage, modifying channel conveyance, and redistributing tidal exchange among connected sub-regions. This study quantifies the multi-decadal cumulative impacts of reclamation on tidal currents and tidal prism in Yueqing Bay, China, using shoreline and bathymetric reconstructions for 1978, 2002, 2013, and 2020; hydrological observations; and a two-dimensional MIKE21 FM tidal hydrodynamic model. Characteristic cross-sections were used to estimate bay-wide and sub-regional tidal prisms, and representative stations were used to diagnose current-speed responses. The bay-wide tidal prism decreased from 15.235 × 108 m3 in 1978 to 12.316 × 108 m3 in 2020, corresponding to a reduction of 2.919 × 108 m3 (19.16%). The strongest loss occurred during 1978–2002, when large-scale reclamation and closure of the Xuanmen Channel removed tidal storage and redirected flow into the remaining main-channel system. Although reclamation intensity weakened after 2013, mean current speed still changed by −0.050 to 0.033 m/s and sub-regional tidal-prism shares continued to adjust, indicating delayed hydrodynamic reorganization rather than immediate stabilization. These results show that reclamation impacts cannot be explained by reclaimed area alone; they depend on project timing, spatial layout, and the connectivity with key tidal pathways. The findings support staged assessment and pathway-sensitive shoreline management in reclaimed semi-enclosed bays.