A Three-Stage Deep Learning Framework for Short-Term Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction

Accurate tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction remains challenging, as numerical models suffer from high computational cost, substantial storage requirements, and physical parameterization uncertainties, while data-driven large AI models depend heavily on training data volume and high-resolution inputs, resulting in prohibitive computational overhead. To address these issues, this paper proposes TCN-GAN-DM, a three-stage deep learning framework based on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Best Track Dataset. Specifically, a dual-stream temporal convolutional network (TCN) first extracts temporal features from track and meteorological sequences, respectively. A generative adversarial network (GAN) then takes these features and produces multiple physically plausible candidate tracks via noise injection. Finally, a conditional diffusion model (DM) refines the predicted positions through progressive denoising. Experimental results for TCs in 2024 show that under the fair deterministic comparison using a single fixed candidate, the model achieves a 6 h track error of 49.10 km, which is comparable to CMA-GFS (49.75 km) and HWRF (44.34 km), and substantially lower than the large AI model FuXi (120.44 km). When evaluating the oracle metric (best-of-K, K = 6) as an upper bound of coverage, the model achieves the smallest errors among all models at 6 h (24.04 km) and 12 h (55.81 km). In addition, the proposed model has advantages over CMA-GFS, HWRF, and FuXi in terms of computational resource consumption and hardware deployment cost. However, its mean track error increases more rapidly beyond 12 h, and at lead times of 18 h and 24 h the model is outperformed by HWRF, FuXi, and CMA-GFS, indicating that its current strength lies primarily in short-term prediction. Consequently, the practical utility of TCN-GAN-DM is currently demonstrated for 6–12 h TC track prediction, offering a new solution for disaster prevention and mitigation that balances accuracy and deployment cost at these specific time scales.