Predicting Financial Contagion: A Deep Learning-Enhanced Actuarial Model for Systemic Risk Assessment

Financial crises increasingly exhibit complex, interconnected patterns that traditional risk models fail to capture. The 2008 global financial crisis, 2020 pandemic shock, and recent banking sector stress events demonstrate how systemic risks propagate through multiple channels simultaneously—e.g., network contagion, extreme co-movements, and information cascades—creating a multidimensional phenomenon that exceeds the capabilities of conventional actuarial or econometric approaches alone. This paper addresses the fundamental challenge of modeling this multidimensional systemic risk phenomenon by proposing a mathematically formalized three-tier integration framework that achieves 19.2% accuracy improvement over traditional models through the following: (1) dynamic network-copula coupling that captures 35% more tail dependencies than static approaches, (2) semantic-temporal alignment of textual signals with network evolution, and (3) economically optimized threshold calibration reducing false positives by 35% while maintaining 85% crisis detection sensitivity. Empirical validation on historical data (2000–2023) demonstrates significant improvements over traditional models: 19.2% increase in predictive accuracy (R2 from 0.68 to 0.87), 2.7 months earlier crisis detection compared to Basel III credit-to-GDP indicators, and 35% reduction in false positive rates while maintaining 85% crisis detection sensitivity. Case studies of the 2008 crisis and 2020 market turbulence illustrate the model’s ability to identify subtle precursor signals through integrated analysis of network structure evolution and semantic changes in regulatory communications. These advances provide financial regulators and institutions with enhanced tools for macroprudential supervision and countercyclical capital buffer calibration, strengthening financial system resilience against multifaceted systemic risks.