Pathways to Green Employment: Skills, Structure, and Policy in EU Transition Economies

This paper investigates the relationship between green vocational education and training (VET), structural economic features, and green employment in Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies. For the purpose of the research, an initial database covering the post-2010 period was assembled from Eurostat and related statistical sources. Due to data availability and cross-country comparability constraints, the final empirical analysis employs a balanced panel of six EU Member States covering the period 2018–2022. The empirical analysis employs pooled OLS and fixed-effects estimators over the period 2018–2022, following a stepwise modeling strategy to assess baseline relationships and robustness. The results show that VET enrollment alone is not a reliable predictor of green employment growth, while VET graduation rates exhibit a more consistent—yet not robust—association once country-specific heterogeneity is controlled for. By contrast, structural reliance on industrial sectors is consistently linked to lower green employment shares, while environmental tax revenues demonstrate modest positive effects. Overall, the findings suggest that green employment dynamics are driven primarily by structural and macroeconomic conditions rather than by skill formation alone. The study contributes to the literature on the green transition by providing an integrated perspective on the interaction between skills, structural transformation, and policy incentives in shaping sustainable labor market outcomes.