Disentangling Complexity and Performance: A Comparative Study of Deep Learning and Random Forest Models for Cropland Vulnerability Assessment in Bangladesh

Climate change increasingly threatens global food security through disrupted precipitation patterns and extreme weather events, requiring resilient systems for assessing agricultural vulnerability. This study developed and compared machine learning approaches for predicting cropland vulnerability using Earth Observation data, operationalized through NDVI anomalies as a defensible biophysical metric. We employed both a dual-stream deep learning architecture and a Random Forest model to predict 2023 NDVI anomalies across Bangladesh croplands using a 22-year time series (2001–2023) of MODIS vegetation indices, ERA5 climate variables, and static environmental covariates. A spatially aware block cross-validation strategy ensured rigorous, independent performance evaluation. Results demonstrated that the Random Forest model (R2 = 0.70, RMSE = 197.03) substantially outperformed the deep learning architecture (R2 = 0.02, RMSE = 357.57), explaining 70% of cropland stress variance and enabling early detection of vulnerable areas three months before harvest. Feature importance analysis identified recent climate variables, March precipitation, February NDVI, and vapor pressure deficit as primary vulnerability drivers. Spatial analysis revealed distinct vulnerability patterns, with Natore and Magura districts exhibiting elevated stress consistent with 2023 drought conditions, threatening the productivity of the region’s critical irrigation-dependent rice cultivation. These findings demonstrate that simpler, interpretable models can sometimes outperform complex architectures while providing useful information for early warning systems and precision targeting of climate adaptation interventions.