Decoupling Effects and Nonlinear Mechanisms of Land-Use Carbon Emissions in Rural Revitalization: A Case Study of Western China

The governance of land use carbon emissions is pivotal to achieving the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Rural revitalization significantly shapes the spatiotemporal patterns and evolutionary dynamics of land use carbon emissions, yet this relationship has received inadequate attention in existing literature. This study employs a combination of decoupling models, the Boston Matrix, spatial analysis, and interpretable machine learning models to conduct an empirical analysis of 124 regions in western China. The findings reveal diversified spatiotemporal evolution trends in rural revitalization land use carbon emissions. The decoupling relationship between rural revitalization and carbon emissions demonstrates a polarized nature, with over half of the assessed regions experiencing negative decoupling effects. The role of impact factors in decoupling relationships is characterized by a mixed nature, hierarchical intensity, nonlinear pathways, spatial heterogeneity and autocorrelation. The pathways of factor effects display nonlinear forms such as wave-like, inverted U-shaped, and U-shaped patterns, with the nature and intensity of effects dynamically shifting between “threshold mutations” and “inflection reversals” as factors evolve. The spatiotemporal evolution patterns, decoupling relationships, and SHAP values all exhibit significant spatial autocorrelation and form “spatial clusters” of various shapes. The decoupling of rural revitalization and carbon emissions in western China constitutes a complex systemic endeavor, necessitating comprehensive analysis from multiple dimensions—encompassing spatiotemporal evolution patterns, decoupling relationship, nonlinear mechanisms, and spatial effects—followed by the formulation of differentiated and precision-targeted governance strategies.