Evolution of Land Use Suitability and Adaptation Strategies of the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone in Northern China Under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change has uncertainty in long-term processes in the future, and how it affects the suitability of agricultural and pastoral production in the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone constitutes a scientific issue of common concern in climate change research and regional sustainable development research. This study has found that global warming, under moderate and high emission patterns, can help improve the heat conditions in the central and eastern regions of the agro pastoral transition zone in the medium to long term, thereby enhancing the suitability of agriculture and animal husbandry. However, in the western part of the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone in northern China, it will further strengthen the constraints of natural conditions, especially in terms of unstable precipitation, and the suitability of land use for agriculture and animal husbandry cannot achieve long-term stable improvement. This study revealed that in the future climate change of the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone in northern China, the heat conditions for agricultural and pastoral production will gradually improve under medium to high emission patterns, but there is no significant trend of increase or decrease in precipitation conditions. This study further discussed the practical path differences and feasibility between moderate and high emission modes, with moderate emission mode being an important mode path for adapting to future climate change in the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone.