Assessing the Impacts of Green Logistics on Sustainable Business Performance: An Application of a Hybrid SEM-GM(1,1) Approach

Background: Amid global sustainability imperatives, the logistics sector serves as a key economic enabler while remaining a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. This study investigates the causal relationships between green logistics practices and sustainable business performance in Vietnamese small- and medium-sized enterprises, mediated by competitiveness, and forecasts future trends to inform transitions aligned with net-zero goals. Methods: A mixed-methods design integrates structural equation modeling with the gray model. Primary data were collected via Likert-scale questionnaires administered to 350 managers to measure latent variables. Secondary financial metrics (revenue, costs, assets, profits) from 15 firms spanning 2021–2024 enabled forecasting. Results: SEM, employing bootstrapping for path estimation, revealed positive direct effects, with the strongest effects for green transportation and weaker effects for technology, packaging, and warehousing. Mediation via competitiveness yielded mixed indirect effects: positive for warehousing and transportation, but negative for technology. GM(1,1) projected moderate performance growth under conditions of data uncertainty. Conclusions: The hybrid framework advances the resource-based view in emerging market contexts, recommending prioritization of transportation and technology initiatives alongside policy incentives to align with sustainable development goals and enhance resilience in Vietnam’s logistics sector.