A Fractional Calculus Approach to Energy Balance Modeling: Incorporating Memory for Responsible Forecasting
Abstract
Global climate change demands modeling approaches that are both computationally efficient and physically faithful to the system’s long-term dynamics. Classical Energy Balance Models (EBMs), while valuable, are fundamentally limited by their memoryless exponential response, which fails to represent the prolonged thermal inertia of the climate system—particularly that associated with deep-ocean heat uptake. In this study, we introduce a fractional Energy Balance Model (fEBM) by replacing the classical integer-order time derivative with a Caputo fractional derivative of order α(0
Fields of Study & Subjects
Climate variability and models
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Mathematics
- Publisher
- MDPI AG
- Volume
- 14
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 223–223
- Publication date
- 7 January 2026
- Language
- EN