Evolutionary Patterns Under Climatic Influences on the Distribution of the Lycoris aurea Complex in East Asia: Historical Dynamics and Future Projections

Investigating plant responses to climate change is critical for understanding phylogeography and devising conservation strategies. This study focuses on the Lycoris aurea (L’Hér.) Herb. complex in East Asia, a system characterized by high cytotype diversity (2n = 12–16), to test whether ecological niche differentiation drives its spatio-temporal evolution. We integrated dynamic niche modeling to reconstruct distribution dynamics from the Last Interglacial (LIG) to the future (2100). Results indicate that mainland China populations have expanded northward since the LIG, establishing their current patterns, while island populations (Taiwan, Ryukyu) remained relatively stable due to geographic constraints. Under future warming scenarios, the complex is projected to further expand northward. We identified key migration corridors, with high inter-cytotype connectivity in the Sichuan-Hubei region and intra-cytotype migration in the Yunnan Plateau and Nanling region. Although the two dominant cytotypes currently exhibit niche equivalency, they show distinct climatic sensitivities—Cytotype II is driven by precipitation and Cytotype IV by temperature—and are projected to diverge spatially in the future. These findings elucidate the evolutionary history of L. aurea and provide a reference for the conservation and utilization of Lycoris germplasm.