Predicting the Potential Distribution of Aconitum carmichaelii Debeaux in China Under Climate Change Using an Optimized MaxEnt Model

Aconitum carmichaelii Debeaux has been a traditional medicinal resource in China for over two millennia. However, sustainable utilization and preservation strategies for A. carmichaelii require a thorough understanding of environmental factors influencing its distribution. An optimized MaxEnt model was constructed using the ENMeval package based on 185 quality-controlled occurrence records and 10 selected environmental variables (bioclimatic, edaphic, topographic, and anthropogenic). The optimized model demonstrated reliable predictive accuracy, with an area under curve (AUC) value of 0.896. Soil moisture (37.7% contribution), human footprint (HFP) (23.9%), and July solar radiation (11.1%) were the primary variables determining A. carmichaelii distribution. The suitable thresholds were defined as soil moisture > 87.34 mm, HFP > 10.69, and July solar radiation < 19,125.72 kJ m−2 day−1. At present, highly suitable habitat covers approximately 8.243 × 105 km2, predominantly located in the Sichuan Basin and surrounding regions, including Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, and northeastern Yunnan. Future predictions under all Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios indicate a significant reduction in highly suitable habitat, with losses of 63.01% (2041–2060, SSP126), 62.62% (2041–2060, SSP245), 61.35% (2041–2060, SSP370), and 61.99% (2061–2080, SSP585). Habitat contraction mainly occurs toward higher altitudes and southwestern areas, with a maximum displacement distance of 50.56 km under the SSP585 scenario. This study enhances our understanding of environmental factors affecting the distribution of A. carmichaelii and offers guidance for its sustainable management and cultivation amid global climate change.